Lou’s 2014 Prognostications — How Did I Do?

Hey all WildSnowers, made my New Year’s predictions for 2014 in this blog post

Check out the summary below and leave comments about how well I did. In a few days I’ll fire up my prognostication for 2015.

1. Swap sole ski boots will disappear in 24 months…? (Seems to be happening; Dynafit helped originate the concept, now they don’t sell any boots with the option. Anyone got a sense of the market on this? I’m hearing that the swap soles are just another possible failure point and warranty hassle, and that soles can be made that function well in both alpine and touring environments provided you use the correct bindings.)

2. One-kilo (plus or minus) backcountry skis…? (I said they’d become the norm. Not quite yet, too difficult but will rocket science provide?)

3. New climbing skin technology… (I predicted better plush, but it seems everyone is working on glue options. We’re currently testing skins such as Kohla, High Trails, Gecko, Montana, Contour and so many more. All have plush that’s pretty much cloned, but man do the adhesives vary in performance, not to mention the tip and tail fixes.)

4. Tech 2.0 will provide a wider boot/binding interface at heel of boot. (Lots of tries at this: Marker, Trab, Dynafit Beast etc. but I’d not call one of them Tech 2.0 though Marker might come close because it uses the tech standardized toe while indeed widening the boot heel/binding interface.)

5. Boot breathing technology will eliminate sweaty hot feet during ski touring… (Soon to come, but coming slowly. I’m thinking we’ll see a viable solution from Scott, perhaps others.)

6. Compressed gas filled avalanche airbags will disappear, fans will replace… (I’m perhaps a bit too eager on this one, but things like the ABS recall cause one to consider this could be true.)

7. Commercial innovation in telemark gear will virtually disappear… (I’ll claim a yes on this one. Beg to differ? Leave a comment.)

8. 2-way radio communication will become lighter, easier to manage, common, and built into smartphones… (Again, I’d say this is still coming but I’m too eager.)

9. Smartphones will replace stand-alone GPS for most ski alpinists… (yes?)

10. Skiers in the United States will push for huts located at higher elevations, in prime skiing terrain… (Another yes, but perhaps I should broaden my prediction time frame out to 24 or 36 months?)

11. Fixed length lightweight carbon ski poles will take a much larger market share… (I’m seeing a bit of this, thought skimo racing would help convince, I still say “just watch.” )

12. Uphill skiing at resorts will become huge… (This is happening. Here in Colorado at just one ski mountain they’re counting 800 people a day uphilling, and are organizing defined uphill routes and education programs. That said, many resorts still don’t seem to get it. Some ski patrol I’ve spoken with appear to regard the whole phenomenon as a nuisance; I believe that attitude comes from the top down.)

13. Price of tech bindings will lower, but skis will continue to cost… (G3 ION and Dynafit Radical are hovering around $500, but look for decent sale prices to kick in as this is war and supplies are somewhat robust due to their now being so many brands and models. Skis seem to be running the gamut. Deals are out there but some premium models stay pricy.)

14. Demographic of ski touring in North America will continue to broaden by age and gender… (I gave myself 4 years on this one, and I’m confident it’s happening.)

15. Split snowboard technology will continue fast paced growth… (Obviously happening.)

16. As backcountry skiers’ average vertical-feet-per-day continues to increase, boots will replace antiquated construction and excessive weight with components such as friction-free cuff pivots and downhill/uphill mode changes that truly require only one motion… (The age of beef boots is over, stick a fork in it. I’m hearing we’ll see more of the lighter weight performance boot category as next year’s products are introduced at Winter OR an ISPO. We’ll be at both.)